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KMID : 0382420010270030035
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Korean Journal of Environmental Health Society
2001 Volume.27 No. 3 p.35 ~ p.42
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Stochastic Characteristics of Water Quality Variation of the Chungju Lake
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Jeong Hyo-Joon
Paik Do-Hyeon
Lee Hong-Keun
Hwang Dae-Ho
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Abstract
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The characteristics of water quality variation were predicted by stochastic model in Chungju dam, north Chungcheong province of south Korea. Monthly time series data of water quality from 1989 to 2001; temperature, BOD, COD and SS, were obtained from environmental yearbook and internet homepage of ministry of environment.
Development of model was carried out with Box-Jenkins method, which includes model identification, estimation and diagnostic checking. ACF and PACF were used to model identification. AIC and BIC were used to model estimation.
Seasonal multiplicative ARIMA(1, 0, 1)(1, 1, 0)_12 model was appropriate to explain stochastic characteristics of temperature. BOD model was ARIMA(2, 2, 1), COD was seasonal multiplicative ARIMA(2, 0, 1)(1, 0, 1)_12, and SS was ARIMA(1, 0, 2) respectively. The simulated water quality data showed a good fitness to the observed data, as a result of model verification.
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KEYWORD
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